Podcast: Insurance For Homeowners and Real Estate Investors

Insurance For Homeowners and Real Estate Investors

For this podcast about insurance I chatted with Matt Kincaid of Meridian Captone.  In the podcast we discussed insurance for homeowners and real estate investors.  Topics included first time homebuyer tips for arranging insurance, insurance for real estate investors with long term tenants and insurance for investors working in the short term rental space.

I hope you enjoy the podcast and find it informative.  Please consider sharing with those who also may benefit.

Listen via YouTube:

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You can connect with Matt at LinkedIn,  You can reach out to Matt for more information on their insurance products by emailing him at mkincaid@meridiancapstone.com.

You can connect with me on Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube and Instagram.

About the author: The above article “Podcast: Insurance For Homeowners and Real Estate Investors” was provided by Luxury Real Estate Specialist Paul Sian. Paul can be reached at paul@CinciNKYRealEstate.com or by phone at 513-560-8002. If you’re thinking of selling or buying your investment or commercial business property I would love to share my marketing knowledge and expertise to help you.  Contact me today!

I work in the following Greater Cincinnati, OH and Northern KY areas: Alexandria, Amberly, Amelia, Anderson Township, Cincinnati, Batavia, Blue Ash, Covington, Edgewood, Florence, Fort Mitchell, Fort Thomas, Hebron, Hyde Park, Indian Hill, Kenwood, Madeira, Mariemont, Milford, Montgomery, Mt. Washington, Newport, Newtown, Norwood, Taylor Mill, Terrace Park, Union Township, and Villa Hills.

Transcript

[RealCincy.com Insurance Podcast]

[Beginning of Recorded Material]

Paul S.:             Hello everybody, this is Paul Sian with United real estate home connections. Real estate agent licensed in the state of Ohio and Kentucky. And with me today is Matt Kincaid with Meridian. Hi Matt, how are you doing today?

Matt K.:            I’m doing great, Paul, thanks for having me.

Paul S.:             Great to have you on here, and looking forward to our podcast today. Where we’re going to discuss insurance for homeowners, for investors as well as looking in-depth into the insurance policies and how that’ll help out buyers and investors, so why don’t you tell us a little bit about your background? When did you get started in insurance?

Matt K.:            Yes. It really started in junior/senior year of college. I went to NKU, graduated in 2015. My best friend actually dropped out of school and started selling commercial trucking insurance to long-distance truckers. So he thought it might be a good part-time job for me to do, do some customer service work.

So that’s what I did my senior year mostly. And picked up on it pretty quickly, and after I graduated, I started selling full-time, and it just happened to be when I stuck with. Ended up transitioning to more personal lines. So I still do a lot of commercials, but our main focus is personal. So we’re typical home auto landlord insurance that sort of thing, so that’s kind of how I got started.

Paul S.:             Great. And you’ve been with Meridian ever since?

Matt K.:            Yes. I’ve been with Meridian. It’ll be four years in September; I’ve been in the industry for about six years now.

Paul S.:             Nice. So I understand a lot of people don’t know that you’ve got your insurance brokers, which I believe Meridian is an insurance broker, and then you got your insurance agents. Can you explain a little bit the difference between an insurance broker and an insurance agent?

Matt K.:            Yes. So in the insurance world, there’s independence and captives; captives are just what it sounds are captive to one product, one company. Whereas with independence Meridian particular, we have about 15 different companies that we’re able to shop around through. So one of our companies is, for example, is Allstate. A lot of captives also have Allstate, but we have the same exact product.

But we also have 12 other companies that we can shop around through, to make sure that you’re getting the best. So it’ll really benefit to the customer and me as an agent, or I’m not if I was just one company, I know I have to stand behind that product 100% no matter what. Whereas being a Meridian, I can just do whatever is best for the customer.

Paul S.:             Yes. So the ideal then I guess is that you can shop around from multiple policies. Just like going into the store, you can compare different types of bread, and whatever price works best for you, whatever flavor works best for you. That’s similar to what you’re able to provide.

Matt K.:            Yes, that’ll be a good example. For like your typical, this may not be what we’re talking about but, but for like your home and auto, most of time, it’s best to be with one company, but not all the time. So I’m able to mix and match if need be, whatever is going to save the customer most money, whatever they’re company is having.

Paul S.:             Great. So let’s move on to first-time homebuyers. Insurance is a, especially for homeowners, insurance is the new thing for first-time homebuyers if they don’t really know what they’re looking for. When’s a good time for them to start having that conversation with their insurance person?

Matt K.:            So I think whenever you get in contract is a good time to start looking. Getting a quote is never going to hurt, you’re not bound to any coverage, or you’re not going to be paying. 90% of time, you’re not going to be paying the full 12 months up front.

So it’s good to start getting your quotes shops around, getting some final numbers to give to your lender if you have one. So they can finalize numbers and give you a good picture of what you might be looking at going forward. So it’s never too early in my opinion, but once you get into contract, I think is an ideal time.

Paul S.:             Yes. That’s something I agree with too. And it should be pointed out for those first-time homebuyers who don’t know, I mean insurance is required if they’re financing the purchase, and the lender is going to require homeowners insurance.

Matt K.:            Yes. A lot of people know that it’s not a law that have home insurance, but the lender can make that stipulation that you have to have it upon closing.

Paul S.:             Great. And when a homebuyer first time, whether homebuyer existing or first-time homebuyer. What exactly is the insurance company looking at when they’re pricing out policies?

Matt K.:            So a big one is, you’ll hear this term going out a lot, insurance score. It’s a credit-based score; you don’t need a social to run it. But they’re able to calculate a similar score based on the amount of claims you’re turning in, your payments.

Are you making your payments on time? That sort of thing. So they’re able to get a good a good picture of the type of risk that the insurance company is taking on so that I mean if you’re looking at the property itself, the construction of the property, how old it is, the exterior that sort of thing.

Paul S.:             So does that involve a hard credit pool or a soft credit pool?

Matt K.:            It’s soft; you won’t see it on your credit at all.

Paul S.:             Okay, great. So that’s something that doesn’t have, even though during the home shopping process there’s going to be a bunch of credit pools, whether from a couple of lenders. But insurance it’s not one of those things that the buyers have to look at.

Matt K.:            No, absolutely not. Especially, that would be a big pain. Especially if I’m shopping through 15, and I’m running NVR and insurance score. But no, it won’t even show up on your score.

Paul S.:             Okay. So what are some of the best ways that homebuyers can improve their chance of getting a better insurance rate?

Matt K.:            Right. So prior insurance history is a big one, making your insurance payments on time. The area that you are in is going to be a big factor. The zip code, there’s different what’s called protection classes based on where the home is. So that’s based on how far you are from the fire hydrant, and also how far you are from the fire department.

So the highest protection class you can have is ten, that’s a maximum risk. You’re over five miles away from the nearest fire department, and your insurance rate is going to be higher. Simply do the fact if there was a fire or total catastrophe, it’s going to take longer for them to reach you.

Paul S.:             Okay. Let’s talk about the risk; you mentioned risk in there. How does risk play into it? Let’s say whether of the buyer themselves and if they’ve had past history of claims or the house even if they’ve never been in the house before what about the risk associated with that.

Paul S.:             Yes. So like I said before pass to insurance, history is big. With these landlord policies, it’s hard to tell what the price is exactly going to be. Because obviously, they’re going to rate it based off the buyer’s insurance score.

But they don’t know who’s going to be living in there. They don’t know the type of risk for who’s going to occupy that home. So it’s very limited; there’s more of a baseline price just based off the buyer’s insurance score and the protection class and the age and the property itself.

Paul S.:             Okay. In terms of the property itself, there’s a CLUE report which a lot of buyers probably have not heard about. Can you explain what the clue report is, what does it stand for, and what does that exactly provide?

Matt K.:            Yes. So I kind of describe it as a moto vehicle report for your home.  So it stands for the comprehensive loss underwriting exchange. So a lot of times, LexisNexis, you’ll get your reports from there. It’s just a big aggregate of claims that are turned in by insurers, and obviously, when I’m running your clue report, it’s going to pull up based off your name, your date of birth and the address if there are any claims that correspond to you, the insurance company can grade it importantly.

Paul S.:             Okay, great. Is there any cost for you pulling a clue report for a buyer?

Matt K.:            No, absolutely not. So for a personal policy, so if we’re talking landlord, that’s four units, four family and under. Most of the times, the company can run that itself. If it’s a commercial policy, it’s a little bit more different.

For example, if this is not a new purchase, maybe you’ve had this property for a few years, and you’re shopping right around, you may have to order that from your prior insurance company. But if it’s a new purchase, a lot of times it’s not going to be necessary, if it’s a commercial risk.

Paul S.:             Okay. Let’s talk about a homeowner who’s been in their house for a few years now, and they had a policy in place with an insurer. Do you have any recommendations or suggestions for them? I mean, do the rates get better? Do the rates get higher if they get another quote?

Matt K.:            So it’s kind of a cache one to it. It’s almost impossible to know what the insurance company is going to do. Obviously, you want to find a company that is A-rated or higher, that means they have a good financial stability, so they’re not just going to raise your rates for no reason.

But insurance is kind of like the stock market in some ways. If a company is taking big losses a certain year, they may try to recoup by raising rates, and that’s just going to be across the board based on your zip code. But I always just say just keep track of your rates. I know Meridian we have somebody who’s dedicated to be shopping if your policy goes up a certain percentage. So I think that’s great to have. But just pay attention to it, and re-shop it every couple of years if need be.

Paul S.:             Okay. By the fact of them, somebody re-shopping it, that’s not necessarily going to increase their rates, will it?

Matt K.:            No, absolutely not. Companies like to see that you’ve been insured, they don’t want to see you bounce around all the time, because that means they’re probably going to lose that risk in a year. But to answer your question, there’s no harm in re-shopping. I have customers that will call me each and every year to make sure that we have the best rate, that’s totally fine by me.

Paul S.:             Okay, that’s great and helpful information. To move on to investment real estate, can you talk about the differences in commercial versus residential investment real estate insurance?

Matt K.:            Yes, so kind of hard to describe the four. Commercial is going to be the five units and above, personal is going to be four and under. Coverages on that, the only differences that you’re going to see with commercial, instead of having a one hundred thousand or three hundred thousand liability limit, most of the time they’re going to include a general liability policy, which is going to include one million in liability.

A bunch of different other things that fall under that, so that might look different. Other than that, the forms are fairly similar. You just want to make sure that you have replacement cost, or if you want actual cash value, deductible, loss of rent. So those things are going to be similar, it’s just a matter of how many years you have, that sort of thing.

Paul S.:             Okay. In terms of investors who are owner occupying, they’re buying a duplex or four-unit, and they want to live in one unit. Are the insurance rates generally better for that type of situation?

Matt K.:            There’s not a clear answer for that, I mean it’s still going to be written on the same type of form. There might be some discounts being that the insurance company is able to calculate their risk, maybe a little bit more accurately. I mean, that could be a good thing or a bad thing for the customer.

But really, you just want to make sure that you’re asking those questions, make sure the agent is writing the policy correctly. So down the road, if there are any changes or let’s say the insurance company audits you and that information is inaccurate, that could then raise your rate.

Paul S.:             Okay. So I guess the answer is it depends?

Matt K.:            Yes. With a lot of insurance, it just depends, unfortunately.

Paul S.:             That’s still good to know. So let’s talk a little bit about insurance riders, I guess insurance riders applies both to regular homeowners as well as investors. What can you tell me? I guess first, let’s explain what’s an insurance rider, and why would somebody want one or need one.

Matt K.:            Yes. So with any insurance policy, there’s going to be a lot of things that are automatically included. Like if we’re talking landlord policy wind, hail, fire, that sort of thing. And then if you want to have personal property protection, let’s say you’re furnishing some of the items may be the appliances in the home can have that. Otherwise, the writers are going to look fairly similar to what you’re going to see on a typical homeowner’s insurance policy.

Or do you want water and sewage backup? Do you want replacement cost on your belongings or the roof? So those are going to look fairly similar. If the agent is asking the right questions and going over it thoroughly, there should be no question on how you want it covered. Some other things that might be on there is earthquake that’s not included; flood insurance it’s a totally separate policy, so there’s always that misconception that flood is included in the homeowners; it’s never included.

Whether it’s a landlord policy or homeowner’s policy, the way to differentiate that with water coverage is where the water is originating from. If the water originated from outside the house, that is flood. If the water is originating from inside, let’s say you have a pipe that burst, or a toilet that overflows or some pump that’s water inside the house and that’s something that could be covered either automatically or with a rider.

Paul S.:             Okay. And just look a little further into flood insurance that applies to both regular buyers and investors, but that’s also like you said this based on external factors close to a river, close to the lake. Where would somebody find out if their property falls under that, or requires flood insurance?

Matt K.:            So a lot of the times, the lender may have an idea if it’s required or not. Otherwise, just asking your insurance agent. There’s not like an automatic identification that is going to tell you. In the loan process, it will probably come up that flood insurance is required, and then at that point, the insurance agent can find out what flood zone you’re in, what kind of rate impact that’s going to have on you, and that sort of thing.

Paul S.:             And then flood insurance too is not something you provide directly, I believe that’s provided from the government, correct?

Matt K.:            Yes. So it’s a FEMA based product, but we do also have a private flood company if your loan accepts that, which can be up to 40% off of a FEMA back product, and it’s the same exact coverage.

Paul S.:             Okay. So let’s talk a little bit more about the private insurance coverage you said for flood insurance, as opposed to FEMA. That’s something you said the lender would have to allow it. Otherwise, they have to go through the government program?

Matt K.:            Yes. So I mean the laws are changing for this all the time, most of the time if it’s a Government loan, they’re not going to allow private flood insurance. But that could depend on a bunch of different factors.

So the best thing to do is just ask your lender if private flood is acceptable because if it is, that’s going to save you a ton of money. I just did one a couple of weeks ago, where FEMA wanted 1,500 bucks, and my private flood carrier came back at like 700. So that could be a big difference, especially if you have a certain down payment you need to make for the home, and just cut cost in general.

Paul S.:             That’s 1500 versus 700 is that a yearly cost?

Matt K.:            Yes, flood is always going to be a 12-month policy, just like your homeowners.

Paul S.:             Okay. Is it worth it? Let’s say somebody’s not listed as a; the property is not listed in flood zone, so they don’t require flood insurance. Is it worth it for them to maybe they happen to live behind a, there’s a small lake behind them? Is it worth it to get flood insurance for them?

Matt K.:            I think it’s at least worth having that conversation, you know everybody’s different. You know there are some customers they’re going to want all the bells and whistles, they are going to want earthquake even if you’re not even close to a fault, that sort of thing.

So it’s just having that conversation, I mean you can never be too covered. It’s never a bad idea to cover all your paces, but it’s just a matter of what the insured is willing to spend, and if they think it’s worth taking that risk or not.

Paul S.:             Okay. Most of the insurance policies we’re talking about, and I shouldn’t say most, I should say all the policies we’re talking about right now are generally applied to like long term whether you as a long term owner-occupant or as a long term investment property, where you have a one continuous tenant may be staying a year after a year or long-term leases basically.

Let’s talk a little bit about short term tenants like your Airbnb, your VRBO, I mean, are there different insurance requirements for that, different insurance policies? What would you recommend? And what have you seen for other people who are looking for that type of insurance?

Matt K.:            Yes. So honestly, I’ve ran across it a few times. The one thing you want to make sure of is most companies will either not write it, or they’ll have an endorsement done for a short-term rental. So that’s going to be a surcharge for you. Other than that, it’s going to be fairly similar. You just want to make sure if you’re going through air Airbnb or VRBO make sure what they are going to cover.

They’re going to include an insurance policy, so you don’t want to have any overlaps, we also don’t want to have any gaps in the insurance. I know Airbnb will, for example, not cover bodily injury or property damage, so that’s something that’s going to fall under your insurance policy. So it’s just making sure that you understand the verbiage. So if you do have an Airbnb home that you want to get insured, take a look at that policy, send it to your insurance agent. Have them write over it, and make sure that you’re fully covered.

Paul S.:             Okay. That’s something that you’d provide if somebody’s coming to look for a policy through you for a short term rental that you would be able to assist them with too?

Matt K.:            Yes, absolutely. I did one last week; the customer was very concerned about the pricing. He was coming from USAA; they wanted like 2,500 bucks on the year for a single-family Airbnb.

I have a great company called Berkshire Hathaway; they have a product specifically for Airbnb or VRBO. I was able to cut his price almost in half. So we definitely have products for it; off the top of my head I probably have three or four that I can quote through.

Paul S.:             Okay, great. And just to go back to your company’s footprint, Meridian, basically, are you able to offer insurance all 50 states? Are you limited anywhere?

Matt K.:            So yes, we’re not available in all 50 states, but we are available in the Tri-State as well as Tennessee, Illinois, a lot of the southeast. So if you have any questions about that, please give me a call.

That being said, I have a lot of property investors that are coming from either across the country or overseas. That is totally fine, as long as the property that they’re buying is within our scope, we can definitely accommodate.

Paul S.:             Okay, great. And what’s the best way for somebody to reach out to you if they want to get some more information?

Matt K.:            So you can reach me either by phone or email. I’m also very active on Facebook. My phone number is 513-503-1817. Or you can reach me by email that is MKincaid@Meridiancapstone.com.

Paul S.:             Okay, great. That’s all the questions I have for you today, Matt, thanks for being on.

Matt K.:            Yes, thanks for having me.

[End of Recorded Material]

Source: cincinkyrealestate.com

What Is Quantitative Tightening?

What Is Quantitative Tightening? | SmartAsset.com

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In the past two years, investors have taken an unusual interest in the Federal Reserve Bank. That’s mostly due to a Fed policy known as ‘quantitative tightening’, or QT. Effectively, QT was the Fed’s attempt to reduce its holdings after it bought huge amounts of debt during the 2008 Great Recession. While some details will interest only economists, QT  may have implications for financial markets and regular investors. It’s useful to explore the backstory, but a financial advisor can be helpful if you’re concerned about how Fed activity can impact your investments,.

What is Quantitative Tightening?

To understand quantitative tightening, it’s helpful to define another term, which is quantitative easing. To do that, we need to go back to the bad days of 2008.

When the Great Recession hit, the Fed slashed interest rates to stimulate the economy. But it was evident that wasn’t nearly enough to stave off crisis. So the Fed provided another jolt of stimulus by buying Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities and other assets in huge volume. This combination of slashing interests rates massive government spending was qualitative easing, or QE, and fortunately it worked. Banks had more cash and could continue to lend, and more lending led to more spending. Slowly, the economy recovered.

But in the meantime, QE exploded the Fed’s balance sheet, which is a tally of the bank’s liabilities and assets. Prior to the crisis, the balance sheet totaled about $925 billion. With all the purchased debt, which the Fed categorized as assets, the balance sheet ballooned to $4.5 trillion by 2017. Years past the financial crisis and with a strong economy, the Fed decided to shrink its balance sheet by shedding some of its accumulated assets, effectively reversing QE.

That reversal is quantitative tightening. QE had poured money into the economy, and through quantitative tightening, the Fed planned to take some of that money out again. First it raised interest rates, which it had plummeted to zero during the financial crisis. Then, it began retiring some of the debt it held by paying off maturing bonds. Instead of  replacing these bonds with new debt purchases, the Fed stood pat and let its stockpile shrink. This effectively reduced the quantity of money under bank control, thus quantitative tightening.

Did Qualitative Tightening Officially End?

There was no official beginning or end to quantitative tightening. The Fed began to ‘normalize’ its balance sheet by raising interest rates in December 2015, the first hike in nearly a decade. In October 2017, it began to reduce its hoard of bonds by as much as $50 billion per month. But after four 2018 interest rate cuts and some stock market downturns, many observers worried the Fed aggressive normalization was too much of a shock to the economy.

In response, the Fed ended the interest rate hikes and slowed down on debt retirement. By March 2019, the cap on reductions reduced from $30 billion a month to $15 billion. By October 2019, the Fed announced it would once again start expanding its balance sheet by buying up to $60 billion in Treasury bills a month.

However, the Fed insisted this was not another round of quantitative easing. Some market observers reacted to that announcement with skepticism. But whether this was or wasn’t a new round of QE, the Fed’s action effectively stopped quantitative tightening.

How Quantitative Tightening Impacts Markets

Many investors worry that quantitative tightening would negatively impact markets. During the past decade, returns have shown a relatively high correlation with the Fed’s purchases. Conversely, the Fed’s selloff of assets was a contributing factor to the market dip in late 2018, which left the S&P 500 about 20% below its top price.

Quantitative tightening definitely made some investors nervous. That said, there are a few things to consider if the Fed shrinks the balance sheet in the future. First, it’s unlikely the balance sheet will contract to its pre-2008 level. The Fed hasn’t indicated where a ‘happy medium’ might be, but the balance sheet remained well about the pre-2008 figures when expansion began again in October 2019.

Additionally, it’s unlikely that quantitative tightening will reverse quantitative easing’s impact on long-term interest rates. In part, the Fed purchased long-term bonds and mortgage-backed securities to move money into other areas, like corporate bonds, and lower borrowing costs. Also, the Fed hoped this activity would encourage the productive use of capital. According to the Fed’s research, the use of quantitative easing reduced yields on 10-year treasury bonds by 50, to 100 basis points (bps).

While quantitative tightening may have reversed some of this impact, experts believe it will not undo long-term interest rates by 100 bps. Ultimately, it comes down to the comparative impact of the expansion and contraction of the balance sheet. In October 2019, the contraction was not nearly sufficient to reverse the expansion.

Other Considerations of Quantitative Tightening

Many investors worry that quantitative tightening will have a big impact on inflation and liquidity. This is because changes in inflation and liquidity may occur when there is a discrepancy concerning supply and demand. During the financial crisis, the Fed increased the money supply since the economic system desperately needed liquidity. A decade and strong recovery later, there’s less liquidly preference. In response, the Fed has decreased  cash reserves. In a strong market, this should have no real impact on liquidity and inflation.

The Takeaway

Quantitative tightening is a monetary policy that increased interest rates and reduced the money supply in circulation by retiring some of the Fed’s debt holdings. After qualitative easing expanded the money supply for several years to bring the economy back on track, the Fed used qualitative tightening as a means to normalize its balance sheet.

While quantitative tightening did not completely reverse quantitative easing, it did shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. This strategy left many investors uneasy about future returns and interest rates. That said, balance sheet normalization did not prove to be as disruptive as many investors feared.

Tips for Investors

  • The Fed’s monetary policy quickly becomes complex, but it’s still useful for investors to keep an eye on the bank’s actions. Since interest rate changes can have direct impact on major purchases and investment plans, understanding the Fed’s reasoning for these decisions can be helpful.
  • Financial advisors can help their clients cut through the noise and translate technical analysis of market observers into plain language. Finding the right financial advisor that fits your needs doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with financial advisors in your area in five minutes. If you’re ready to be matched with local advisors that will help you achieve your financial goals, get started now.

Photo credit: ©iStock.com/drnadig, ©iStock.com/claffra, ©iStock.com/Duncan_Andison

Ashley Chorpenning Ashley Chorpenning is an experienced financial writer currently serving as an investment and insurance expert at SmartAsset. In addition to being a contributing writer at SmartAsset, she writes for solo entrepreneurs as well as for Fortune 500 companies. Ashley is a finance graduate of the University of Cincinnati. When she isn’t helping people understand their finances, you may find Ashley cage diving with great whites or on safari in South Africa.
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The Market Crash Is Coming! (…Eventually)

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Here on the Best Interest, I provide a lot of “you should be investing!” advice. I talk about the power of long-term investments. And stock market strategies. And even about my specific investment choices. But today is different. Today’s post is about the upcoming market crash. Well…it’s coming eventually.

Perhaps you’ve come to believe that I’m an unwavering bull. A pure optimist. That I think investments can do nothing but increase in value. But that’s not true. I know the crash will come. It always does.

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And that might seem scary. If the crash is coming, then why not do something about it? So that’s what today’s post is about. Even though we’re aware that a market crash is coming (eventually), we can take a step back and think about it rationally.

Being a Bull Before the Market Crash

Here’s a prediction.

I predict that I will eventually make a blog post where I say something like,

“I bought some shares of an index fund this month—just like every other month. And I think it’s one of the smartest things you can do as an investor.”

And after that future blog post, the market will proceed to fall 30% over the next few months.

Some people will then look at the Best Interest and think, “Pfff! This guy Jesse doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about! He invested a few thousand bucks right before the market crashed!! What a dummy!”

I’m calling it now. It’ll happen. And I understand why it will appear like I’d be a dummy.

So let’s dig in. Am I a dummy?

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Historical Data: The Market Crash Always Comes

The market crash always comes eventually.

Bear markets—where the stock market value drops by 20% or more from its previous high—have occurred 12 times since 1929.

Years of Bear Markets Percent Drawdown from Previous High
1929 – late 30s (Great Depression) -86%
1956 – 57 -22%
1961 – 62 (Flash Crash of ’62) -28%
1966 -22%
1968 – 70 -36%
1973 – 78 (Bretton Woods + Oil Crisis) -48%
1980 – 82 -27%
1987 – 88 (Black Monday) -34%
1990 -20%
2001 – 05 (Dot Com Bubble) -49%
2008 – 09 (Financial Crisis) -56%
2020 (COVID) -32%

The market ebbs and flows, oscillating between “unsustainable optimism and unjustified pessimism.” If we believe the assumption that stock prices are current unsustainably optimistic, then it’s believable that a serious bear market could happen in the next few years.

But lesser corrections—typically defined as at least a 10% drawdown—occur even more frequently. Since 1950, there have been 37 corrections of 10% or more. That’s more frequent than one every two years.

It doesn’t take Nostradamus to predict a future market downswing. I’m not calling a 1-in-1000 event. Market corrections happen all the time.

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“But if he gets elected…!!!”

You can find arguments from both sides of the political aisle that certain parties lead to better stock market performance. But let’s investigate the data itself.

First, let’s look at the president only. But heed warning: this is a slightly dangerous game. Does the president alone have enough influence to affect the stock market? Will the answers we find here be conclusive of causation? Or will they only present correlation?

From 1926 to 2020, we have 95 years of S&P 500 data. During that time, we’ve had 48 years of Democratic leadership and 47 years of Republican leadership. Republican years saw an average S&P 500 return of 9.0%, while Democratic years saw an average return of 14.9%.

That’s a pretty big difference! But is it causal i.e. one thing causes the other to occur? Can a system as complicated as the stock market be tied down to a single influencing variable like the president’s political party? Probably not.

After all, that’s only 23 presidential terms and 15 individual presidents. Eight Republicans and seven Democrats. Not exactly a huge sample set.

Keep this in mind for the next time a President tweet-brags about the stock market’s success.

President + Congress

But there is another working theory worth inspecting. The theory is that our government is more efficient when the Congress (both Houses) is controlled by the President’s party. If the President and Congress work together effectively, then we all benefit. It’s a “teamwork makes the dream work” situation.

In the 95-year period since 1926, we’ve had 48 years of President/Congress unification (14 years Republican and 34 years Democrat) and 47 years of division (33 with a Republican president and 14 with a Democrat). The market performance during these periods is very interesting.

President / Congress S&P 500 Average Annual Return
Dem / Dem (34 years) 14.5%
Repub / Repub (14 years) 13.9%
Dem / Repub or Split (14 years) 15.9%
Repub / Dem or Split (33 years) 7.0%
Total Unified (48 years) 14.3%
Total Divided (47 years) 9.7%

Is this causal? Does a unified Federal government ensure that the economy and stock market perform better? I doubt it’s conclusive. But it is interesting nonetheless.

The market trends upwards no matter who is in office, but it appears that political cooperation might help grease the wheels.

The Silver Lining of Market Crashes

Back when we consulted Mr. Market, one big takeaway was:

The only two prices that ever matter are the price when you buy and the price when you sell.

Ask yourself: what are your investing plans are for the next few years? Are you going to be a buyer—someone who is investing for the future? Or are you going to be a seller—someone who has invested for the past few decades and now wants to live off those investments?

If you’re a buyer, then a market crash has a pretty significant silver lining. Cheaper prices! If the market declines, then you get to invest at lower prices. It’s the easiest way to increase your long-term investing potential. Buy low, sell high. Dollar-cost average investors relish these chances to decrease their cost basis.

If you’re a seller, let’s look at how your past 30 years have been. The S&P 500 value was around ~350 in 1990. And now it’s at ~3500, or about 10x higher. If the market drops 20% next week to 2800, then your returns are only ~8x compared to 1990. But an 8x return ain’t bad!

“If the market crash is coming…why not sell now and wait to re-invest after the prices drop?”

Before I answer the question above, let’s consult Peter Lynch—who is considered one of the most successful investors of all-time.

Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.

Peter Lynch

What exactly is Lynch saying? How do people lose money by “preparing” for corrections?

People lose money “preparing” for corrections because they sell too soon and then don’t know when to buy back in. It’s that simple. Both actions—selling too soon and not buying back in soon enough—can cause investors to miss out of years of growth and years of dividends.

That’s why Peter Lynch’s quote rings so true. Timing the market is hard.

So we don’t sell in preparation for a crash. But what about saving up cash and waiting to buy? Why not hold cash, wait for the 10% drop (that we know happens every 2 years, or so) and buy in then?

Well, I looked at that too. Back in March ’20, my “Viral Stock Market Strategies” article (get it? viral?!) looked at an assortment of supposed strategies that involved holding onto cash while waiting for the market to drop. I back-tested these strategies against the historical S&P 500 data, and simple dollar-cost averaging beats all the “wait for a drop” strategies.

You think there’s a market crash coming? I know, me too (eventually). There’s certainly a chance that holding onto cash and waiting for the crash is correct right now. But if you try that tactic over time, it’s a losing strategy.

Don’t sell. And don’t wait to buy. Carry on with your normal investing cadence.

Don’t do something. Just sit there.

Jack Bogle

“But what if it’s the crash?!”

What if what’s coming is the big market crash? The mother-of-all-crashes! What if society falls apart? Or if a meteor hits Earth and life changes as we know it? What if we all start scavenging for beans and scrap metal and fuel for our souped-up dirt bikes?

Mad Max GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY
Mad Max – where fuel and water are all that matter.

Scary questions, but they have a pretty simple answer. If an existential threat ruins your investments, then the stock market will be the least of your worries. That’s it. If “the big one” hits, then the stock market will be one of many societal structures that no longer matter.

If it’s not “the big one,” then the market will recover. It always does.

Why? Why does the market always bounce back? In part, it’s because humans are resilient. We learn and grow and work towards progress. While this year’s COVID market recovery can be attributed to many different factors—like the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates—it can also be attributed to human resiliency.

If “the big one” is coming, then shouldn’t you just “YOLO” and spend your money now? Yeah, you should. I suppose we all need to do some probability analysis.

  • What are the odds that “the big one” is about to come and you look stupid that your investments become worthless?
  • What are the odds that “the big one” never comes and you wish that you had invested in your younger years to enable retirement?

I’ll take my chances and save for retirement.

Crash Landing

So, am I a dummy? I hope I’ve convinced you otherwise.

A 90s Kid's Journey Through the Disney Canon: March 2015

Even though we know that the stock market will eventually succumb to 10%, 20%, or even larger drawdowns, there’s no basis that you’ll benefit by trying to wait or time that market crash. It might work, but it usually doesn’t. That’s what the historical data tell us.

Waiting for the election doesn’t matter either. Democrats, Republicans…the market does its own thing. There might be some causality, but it’s tough to tell.

There are silver linings in corrections and crashes. If you’re investing for the long-term, then corrections enable cheaper prices and greater returns.

And if this market crash is “the big one,” then none of this really matters. It’s hard to blog if the electrical grid fails.

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